2012

China's Q1 GDP disappointed expectations and market rumors and is the chief driver of the capital markets today. The official measure of growth was 8.1%. The consensus was 8.4% before yesterday's rumors of a 9% rise made the rounds and…

I thought I'd point out that the already severely undercapitalised Spanish banking system is being crushed by the spike in Spanish sovereign yields. I continue to expect Europe to continue the extend and pretend approach, creating…

"The chart also shows that the current economic situation is much weaker in several euro-area periphery countries. The recession in Greece has yet to end, and real GDP is now more than 17 percent below its prior peak. While a recovery…

In recent days, policy makers have been most noticeable by their absence. This absence has weakened their credibility and encouraging speculative attention. This is true for Switzerland, Europe and Japan.

I am increasingly worried about what is happening in Spain. It seems that the crisis there is hitting a flashpoint with no obvious means of turning things around. Over the past few days, I have been reading and listening to Spanish media…

The jobs numbers were disappointing. From a policy perspective, the hope is that we can keep stimulus in the queue long enough so that the cyclical hiring trends pick up before overindebted consumers get fatigued again. But underneath…

Thus far the SNB has successfully blocked the Swiss franc's appreciation relatively cheaply. Compare the bang it got from about CHF18 bln intervention last year with the record operations by Japanese officials. The SNB has various ways it…

Below is the video clip from 60 Minuted giving the average viewer a better sense of what is going on in Europe right now. The video is timely given the problems Spain and Italy are having with their government debt levels rising. Spain is…

Spain has really hit the wall now. Given what we know of how the sovereign debt crisis has proceeded. The likelihood that Spain can escape from the rise in yields without ECB or EU-wide intervention is slim.

The LTRO's provided more than 1 trillion euros of liquidity. An under-appreciated aspect of the virtuous cycle, was the bank balance sheets improved not just because of cheaper cost of capital, but because there was a significant rally in…