2012

If you argue that austerity works in cutting deficits over the longer-term but the short-term pain is worth it, that's a different argument than the one Republicans are making - and one not likely to get one elected, which is why they're…

It was in Hungary that the new orthodoxy of relying on “non-Keynesian” effects related to expectations and credibility was formally announced and put to work. However, private consumption, unfortunately, has notably failed to rise. Perhaps…

News links for 8 January 2012

Each member will be asked to give a number for what they think the interest rate will be at the end of this year, the end of next few years and also in the long run. Won’t it be confusing to have 12 different predictions for this?

With the Chinese New Year holiday period approaching, it becomes a bit harder to discern PBOC’s policy intentions. It typically adds liquidity aggressively ahead of the holidays, but this year it comes at a time when the central bank is…

News Links for 7 January 2012

European sovereigns return to the capital markets more substantially next week as 2012 issuance gets under way. Between bills and bonds, around 35-40 bln euros will be sold. Maturing issues and coupon payments will cover about…

News links for 6 January 2012

The US is a continental country, meaning that its economy is mostly domestic with only a small percentage coming from outside via trade. That makes the US much less beholden to external demand than countries like Germany that are…

Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here's a brief version of the list.