Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012 (short version)

Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here’s a brief version of the list. Like Wien, I think these are events most see as 1 in 3 but have a 50% or better likelihood of occurring.

  1. Greece sees writedowns
  2. Romney gets the nod in the US
  3. China has a hard landing
  4. India slows more than China
  5. Australia’s property boom ends
  6. European equities outperforms
  7. US GDP comes in below Byron Wien’s expected 3%
  8. German GDP slows dramatically
  9. Gold has its first off year
  10. The ECB provides more explicit backstops

Full post and reasoning at Credit Writedowns Pro with more discussion there to follow.

  1. beowulf says

    Interesting stuff, good luck with the newsletter. If I could make two small marketing suggestions:

    1.  Put more stress on your govt service.  You should say “career diplomat” (meaning you were a merit hire and not a political appointee, but sounds like you spent decades overseas); or note that you  “held a Top Secret security clearance and served overseas in  x countries and traveled unofficially  y more”.  If people jump to the conclusion that “career diplomat” really means “undercover assassin”, well that can only help newsletter sales.  :o)
    In TV booking terms, you want them to remember you cover the waterfront from finance to monetary policy to foreign policy.   Since “diplomat-investment banker” is a very cool title  (almost as good as “playboy philanthropist”), run with it.

    2.  Your Business Insider bio mentions you used to work for Bain Consulting.  In light of prediction 2 and what the likely next President of the United States was doing before going into politics, I would mention that fact more prominently (I imagine Bain Consulting is a part of Bain & Co.  Even if its not, everyone will naturally assume otherwise).

    1. fresno dan says

      You know, he does look too suave and debonair to be merely a financial type – probably was detailed to the super secret “Osix9” sex agent unit, where he was assigned to get information by seducing the sexy mistresses of important people, and only killed when necessary, using jerry rigged implements on the fly like rubber bands and paper clips when there was no other alternative….
      Of course, he will deny it.

      1. beowulf says

        “When Mr. Harrison retired from government service, he was replaced by a squadron of Predator drones”.

    2. Edward Harrison says

      Thanks for the tips.

  2. Ignatius says

    Re: Romney gets the nod: are you talking about the GOP nomination or the general election? If the former, it would hardly be a “surprise” given that he’s the consensus favorite to be the nominee. Even the latter would not be much of a surprise to most.

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