Jobs Report January 2012

The jobs numbers just came out at 830 this morning. They were above consensus if 155K for an add at +200K. This was a good number as the unemployment rate fell to 8.5%. I think the consensus view is that the tide is turning in the US, that the economy is finally bouncing back. If true, that’s a boon for Obama in 2012.

The US is a continental country, meaning that its economy is mostly domestic with only a small percentage coming from outside via trade. That makes the US much less beholden to external demand than countries like Germany that are export-led. That said, I still see the odds of a recession in 2012 as high given the global backdrop. However, if the US avoids dramatic federal government budget cuts that suck money out of the economy, the US will do better than Europe. That’s about all I can say on this number.

Here are some links:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-06/u-s-payrolls-gain-more-than-expected-200-000-jobless-rate-falls-to-8-5-.html

https://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203471004577144392378730950.html

https://money.cnn.com/2012/01/06/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment/