2012

Tough to bet on a triple top here. Looks like 82.60 is the next key level, which is the .618 fib retracement of the June 7, 2010/May 2, 2011 move.

Here is something to flag; there has been a lot of chatter amongst economic pundits about the seasonality effect on recent data. Those with a sceptical view have been saying that the upside surprise in the Friday jobs data in particular is…

Imagine being on the FOMC and in the mainstream paradigm. In 2008 you moved quickly to make sure the US would not become the next Japan. What do you have to show for it, 3 years later?

The death of North Korea’s Kim Jong-il in the middle of December can be either a bump or grind. More likely, the change of leadership will mark a continuation of the status quo. Not only do North Korea’s elite and military seem firmly in…

The Swiss franc is moving up strongly on this news from the Swiss National Bank.

This week we begin a new topic: functional finance. This will occupy us for the next several blog posts. Today we will lay out Abba Lerner’s approach to policy.

The best resolution, and the one Keynes urged without success on the US in the 1920s and 1930s, is that Germany take steps to reverse its trade surplus. It could boost disposable household income and household consumption by cutting income…

In a Tokyo-less Asian session the dollar had begun the week bid, but this quickly reversed in early Europe, which saw the euro rise more than a cent off the $1.2666 low. It was largely a short-covering bounce, but as North American players…

Government interference extends unstable market conditions longer than would otherwise be true. By doing so, George Eliot's observation (at the bottom, here) is even more appropriate in 2012.

Here's what I had to say about Europe on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster on Thursday night. I'm not bullish on the real economy there (but I still expect relative share outperformance due to lower P/Es). The US is having a bit of a data…