United States

The February 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM data were very bullish. Both the headline and the major subindices showed a lot of strength. And for me that indicates the 0.3% number on the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker will move up markedly as more…

Stalled outYou probably saw this but the Atlanta Fed came out with its first Q1 GDPNow estimate. And it's starting at a 0.3% level. Here's the chart. GDPNow is a nowcast. So it can change dramatically. And it isn't always very close to…

I have a number of threads to address here. The first is that we got two big pieces of economic data out of the US this morning, one backward looking and the other coincident or forward looking. And I want to break down. My overall take is…

The Federal Reserve's about-face on rates between December and January looks a lot more rational in the context of the US economic data released today. We saw US retail sales unexpectedly fall in December, posting the worst drop in nine…

The post this morning on the evolving strategy of Germany's SPD was actually yesterday's post. I didn't get a chance to write it because I went to bed super early. So I am going to write a short piece for today's post focussing on Japan,…

I just got this via email from the US Labor Department: In the week ending February 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 253,000. The…

I was reading about the potential candidacy of former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz for US President in the 2020 election just now. He plans to run as an independent, potentially dividing the anti-Trump vote, should Trump survive until then.…

Let me run something by you. I was thinking about the economic implications of the US midterm election this morning when I happened across various accounts about Donald Trump's press conference yesterday. A lot of the focus was on his…

The US midterm elections last night saw the biggest turnout for a midterm in at least half a century because voter enthusiasm was high. But it was high because the United States is very polarized right now about the job performance of…

There isn't a lot of economic news out today, so let me focus today's piece a bit on the economic and social messaging ahead of the US midterm elections. What about the economy? I was in the car just now, listening to the radio, when a…