recession

Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Mohamed A. El-Erian told Bloomberg TV’s Betty Liu and Dominic Chu this morning that U.S. economic conditions are “terrifying” as the nation struggles to recover from recession.…

The economic data in the US has been somewhat better of late but the ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan argues that this is meaningless; you can’t repeal the business cycle. His view is that the indicators pointing to an end of cycle slowing into…

Imposed austerity does directly alter output and employment- for the worse. Additionally, for all practical purposes, there is universal global support for austerity as the means supporting global output and employment. So even if the euro…

I see this as a macro call. High yield is attractive if you think that the economy will rebound. if not, the extremely low high yield default rate will rise considerably, as will yields.

This is an argument in favor of not avoiding recession but of avoiding depression.

The bottom line is this: Forget about Meredith Whitney. State and municipal governments are carrying a load in operating and pension costs that cannot be sustained through downturns in a secular bear market as the US population ages. These…

This video clip has been making the rounds so I thought I should post it (without commentary). The line most people have focused on is the one I quoted in the post title. Feel free to comment.

I don’t see anything major to disagree with here. Nouriel makes a lot of sense. Notice he’s pegging recession odds at 60%. That number for him was 30% as recently as a month or two ago.

I don’t ascribe that much importance to confidence data as a leading indicator. Moreover, as we saw during the 2000s, low consumer savings can bolster GDP growth for quite a long time. Nevertheless, I agree with the underlying message here,…