interest rates

Happy Tuesday! In the US, the summer holiday season is officially over today. And so, markets here are fully re-engaged. That usually means a reassessment of the economic, political, and investing landscape. And that has sometimes led to…

Today's daily newsletter is very late but hopefully still useful. Yesterday I said I have a few thoughts on China that I want to run by you. I didn't get them out yesterday. So I will incorporate them into today's post. Feedback appreciated…

A lot of people are still watching the flattening yield curve and distress in EM. And while I think both of these events are important, I am looking at a lot of other market signals, particularly US domestic credit markets. Here are some…

This post explains why the BoJ's latest move is a tightening of monetary policy.

Quick post here. Earlier today, I sent out a note about the Bank of England's rate hike basically saying a large part of it was about the urge to normalize. When I wrote that I hadn't seen Gavyn Davies' most recent missive on central banks.…

Top stories on the persistence of the US economy, the impact of tariffs and the trade war and crisis in Turkey

The timing of the BoE's rate hike decision is poor - almost on par with the ECB's summer of 2011 hike during the sovereign debt crisis.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tacker is already showing some pretty robust numbers for Q3 GDP growth.

The way to think of a flattening yield curve is as a signal that the market expects Fed tightening to precipitate a slowdown that halts or even reverses future hikes. It's the market's way of saying they expect the Fed to tighten and then…

When I heard about what happened to the private equity company Abraaj Group, based in Dubai, I immediately thought back to Dubai World nine years ago.