interest rates

Editor's note: A version of this post was originally published at my Patreon account on 13 Jun I have another more macro post on the Fed I am developing for later today. But I wanted to run this one by you because I am seeing a lot of…

My expectation is for the Fed to raise rates, keep guidance the same but be slightly more hawkish.

The macro data are good enough for the Fed to dismiss economic concerns for adding a hike in December. The market is only pricing in this hike at 33.2%.

I have talked a decent bit about the jobs report in my last two posts here. So I want to say more about what the information in that report says to Fed members, given recent Fed guidance and speeches. I am going to lean heavily on comments…

The US jobs number just came out and the figures were quite good. Two-year yields spiked on the news.

By Marc Chandler This post first appeared on Marc to Market Investors are seeing turmoil in the capital markets and a decline in US interest rates, including at the short-end.  Some are suggesting that market has become less confident of…

Policy divergence is the driver of market vulnerabilities. The longer the US stands alone in tightening policy, the greater the stress on the financial system.

As good as the headline unemployment rate appears to be, we should worry that wage growth for the majority of Americans remains weak. The Federal Reserve, acting on the headline rate, will likely make a significant policy error and raise…

Job growth has now begun a slight re-acceleration. If this trend holds, the unemployment rate will drop into the mid 3% range and the Fed will move to a fourth rate hike. The mix of continued job growth, tightening monetary policy, and late…

I've talked about 12-18 between curve inversion and recession months as a rule of thumb. That gives you at least a year to rotate your portfolio and get defensive.