Evidence of market expectations for a Fed rate hike pause or reversal in 2019 or 2020

The way to think of a flattening yield curve is as a signal that the market expects Fed tightening to precipitate a slowdown that halts or even reverses future hikes. It's the market's way of saying they expect the Fed to tighten and then to stop tightening when weak data are released that result from the Fed's tightening.

As you know by now, the way I think of Fed hikes is different than most people. I think of them as adding to interest income and pulling forward credit demand in the initial ...


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