Forecasts

I was on RT's Capital Account on Monday afternoon, talking about the euro crisis yet again. The video is below but I have a few comments before you watch it. In the video, I say Europe can continue dithering for quite a while. There is…

This post is a brief outline in bullet points of my macro view of the global financial crisis both in terms of cause and effect and prediction. My goal here is to help me crystallize what the real issues are and how they are likely to play…

This week's newsletter is going to focus on how risk assets are setup given the continuing global growth slowdown and likely policy responses to it. The overall thesis is that shares and high yield bonds in the US are short-term oversold…

When I listed my Ten Surprises for 2012 in January I predicted that China would have a hard landing, defined as quarterly growth below 5% annualised by the end of this year. But I also said that India would be worse than China. And it is…

I thought now would be a good time to see how my ten surprises for 2012 are tracking as we are nearly a third of the way through the year. I posted these as my first weekly newsletter and these are events that have 1-in-3 odds of happening…

The forecasting proficiency of central bankers is a topical issue. At least, a friend asked if I could help with a list of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's predictions. The list stops in 2008, although he has been no more accurate…

This daily commentary is a bronze level post. Today, my comments go to warning signs in the economic data about the global economy slowing down. Lots of links on this topic as well.

This weekly newsletter is a gold-level post and follows up on my prediction early last month about 2012 being a period of margin compression in US companies, threatening the rally in stocks and mandating a rotation in investment style or…

In this issue of the newsletter I want to sketch out a scenario in which rather than analyze policy announcements or make predictions I try to lay out what are the various possible paths open to China. The scenario concerns trade. China’s…