Forecasts

There are a lot of different threads in today's links to choose from for the overarching theme. So I will just choose one and run with it. Let's look at the Amazon selling at cost issue from Apple's perspective. What Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos…

The IMF is out with its predictions for global growth in 2012 and 2013 and across the board the numbers are being reduced. In particular, the IMF sees growth slowing globally to 3.6% next year, which is a reduction from its July estimate of…

Some are expecting the latest surge in US home construction to lift economic growth. Even though it is indeed a positive development, construction however will have only a limited contribution to the GDP.

The following is an excerpt of an article written exactly twenty years ago on 8 October 1992 by the late Wynne Godley, a British economist, who predicted disaster for Europe’s planned single currency. This is the single most cogent and…

This crisis has broken a lot of economic taboos, with central banks buying up assets and expanding their balance sheets in a desperate effort  to reflate a debt-laden private sector. The goal is to maintain economic growth, even at the risk…

I am going to be speaking on a panel on "Investing in Inflation" tomorrow. And I thought I would put forward some ideas here regarding what I intend to say. The key word describing where we are is biflation, meaning inflation in some things…

I have had a lot of other things on my plate and haven't been able to write as regularly as I would like. But I am going to try to increase the volume of posts by putting out more quick hits like this one that capture my macro view without…

This is a brief note on Apple since it sold 5 million iPhones at the weekend. I have been saying that the upgrade cycle for Apple would be bullish and it has been as we are seeing record sales. This is due mostly to the fact that Apple's…

The Kocherlakota speech is important because he was a hawk earlier in the third easing campaign. See last August's post "Kocherlakota: Statement on Dissenting Permanent Zero Policy." Greg Ip writes in two insightful tweets, "Kocherlakota's…

I have a backlog of links I could put into this post but I am going to get this out now to concentrate on one issue: the US presidential election and Mitt Romney's meltdown. At the beginning of the year, I predicted that Romney would win…