Forecasts

At the end of April, I wrote a bullish piece centered on an economic snapback after the re-opening, in large part because of pervasive bearish sentiment. I called it "Negative sentiment, the oil price collapse and re-opening business".…

Falling apart I haven't posted in a week because I am trying to process what's happening in the United States right now. With the pandemic and 20-25% unemployment and cities torn by protest and violence, it really seems like the country is…

Those of you who know my writing from days gone day, when Credit Writedowns was a blog, know that I gave up advocating for policy responses a long time ago. Not to be a defeatist, but the lesson I learned from the Great Financial Crisis was…

Yesterday was a nice little rally in shares on the back of good news about a virus trial and stimulus support in the US and Europe. That saw us get well over the 61.8% retracement level for the S&P500, where there had been a lot of…

Real quick here today, since I'm supposed to be on Holiday. The data out this morning in the US were extremely bullish in my view. And, as I've been saying April data would make or break the economic re-acceleration thesis, I am finally…

I am sending this out to everyone on the distro today because I am going on vacation/holiday for the next week and I won't be near a computer for all of that time. There will be no Credit Writedowns posts all this next week!! So I want to…

The short vol trade may now be over. Bond yields will again reach levels that causes angst for equity markets. And equities will tumble. Rinse and repeat.

The Atlanta Fed updated its nowcast model today with the ISM results we reported earlier. The numbers are big.

There is nothing quite like a falling dollar to spur take of the erosion of the greenback's reserve status. For various reasons, countries have chosen to build reserves. Following the decision to hold or build reserves, the question arises…

We see economic growth everywhere in the global economy for the first time in many years. Let's put this economic period in context and talk about opportunities and threats.