Forecasts

Veteran value investor Jeremy Grantham says that we won't see an imminent end to the US bull market. He expects a melt-up, not a meltdown. But Grantham goes on to say that we will see an asset bubble implosion in 2019, with as much as 50%…

In the week ending December 23, initial jobless claims were just 245,000, keeping the average below 240,000 yet again. With claims still below year ago levels, there are no signs in the data that a US slowdown is coming. As a result, we may…

Markets seem to think the Federal Reserve’s recent policy statement and Chair Yellen’s subsequent press conference comments were dovish. This is a misread that I believe will have a meaningful impact on fixed income markets. The big…

Given where we are right now, I think this expansion will continue through the end of 2018. And I want to talk about what that means in the context of my last post and recent BIS warnings on financial markets.

Tax cuts in the US will accelerate the Fed’s timetable and increase the potential of curve inversion and eventual recession.

The latest jobs number out of the US was a loss of 33,000 jobs in a hurricane-ravaged September. Despite the job losses, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%. Viewed narrowly, this number puts the Fed on hold until December. But viewed…

When you look at how markets are positioned, it’s clear that a lot of people see continued low growth for years to come – a veritable Japanification of the US economy. I hope this is one of those times that markets are wrong. But I am not…

We are seeing decent selling in today’s US equity markets, with the VIX up some 25%. And most people are pointing to the Trump scandals. But this is only one day. What is happening with Trump – while negative - will not change the arc of…

On Friday, I wrote why, unlike Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, I believe the economic threat of Brexit to the British economy is now higher. The gist of my remarks was that an actual trigger of Article 50 under hard Brexit…

When the Brexit vote first happened, I indicated that I didn’t see the huge risk to the UK that others did. In fact, I thought the initial tail risks were elsewhere, like the Italian banking system. The economic risks for the UK were always…