Forecasts

Business Insider met with Goldman's Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and learned he is bullish on the US economy largely because he believes his Wynne Godley-inspired model of the US economy shows likely releveraging in the household sector. …

According to recent estimates by Goldman Sachs, the US economy is already at stall speed, with GDP growth for Q4 expected to be an anemic 1%. Any further cuts to growth beyond this due to the fiscal cliff in 2013 would cause a recession.…

By Sober Look As discussed earlier (see post), US manufacturing data for November shows shrinking inventories. This is true for both the ISM survey ... ISM Inventories index (source: ISM) as well as the Markit PMI index: US Markit…

By Niels Jensen The Absolute Return Letter, December 2012 “It’s one thing to have an opinion on the macro, but something very different to act as if it’s correct.” -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Management It can be a frustrating, and…

I write quite a bit about Apple because it is a bellwether stock for the technology industry and the broader market, a defining company in the US equity market. Clearly, Apple is a money machine as it made over $40 billion in FY 2012 which…

Jeremy Grantham's quarterly piece is out now and the important topic is the lack of growth in the US. The way that Grantham paints the picture - and I believe this is an accurate depiction - the US is not just suffering from a cyclical…

I am still in vacation mode but I will start to post a lot more thematic content over the next two weeks. This post will concentrate on the mobile handset market and is based largely on a recent market analysis by Gartner. Earlier in the…

Editor's note: The daily post will not appear as regularly over the next week due to Edward's schedule. In addition, Edward may not post weekly or member posts during this time, However, he will try to get as much content out as he can…

Three years on, I remain absolutely convinced that deflation, driven primarily by consumers eager to repair their balance sheets, will be a powerful force for many years to come but, at the same time, I must admit that I see worrying signs…

As I wrote yesterday, government deficits are the biggest driver of elevated corporate margins. This is significant in the US given the looming fiscal cliff and the already ongoing margin mean reversion. Using the financial sectoral…