Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012 (short version)
Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here's a brief version of the list.
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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012
Welcome to Credit Writedowns Pro. This is the first post in a series here. Let me start this Byron Wien-style and make a predictions list. Wien defines his surprises as events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which he…
John Mauldin: The Matterhorn Interview
Investment advisor John Mauldin explains his attitude towards austerity measures; a return of the gold standard; the euro crisis; and the willingness to bailout everyone that makes capitalism and monetary systems stop working.
On the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operation and 2012 macro ideas for investors
The end of year is usually a good time for markets. There was a lot of angst about the European situation a few weeks ago, but there is less of that now because we're hitting year-end (tape painting). Does that mean the credit crisis…
The 2012 Blind Side: China’s Housing Bust
Foreign Affairs has just posted a must read piece, "China’s Real Estate Bubble May Have Just Popped", which will sound very familiar to Global Macro Monitor readers. We’re going to be spend a lot time over the holidays thinking how this…
Forecasting misconceptions and the likelihood of European financial repression
Market participants, including economists and strategists are prone to confusing what they believe should be the case with what will be the case.
Steve Keen on HARDtalk on the financial crisis and the economy
This time it's Steve Keen on the hotseat on HARDtalk. Now, Steve is one of the few economists who actually predicted the global financial crisis. But what about the possibility of another Great Depression? That possibility and how to avoid…
Running through unilateral Italian euro zone exit scenarios
A unilateral exit would be a devastating event for Italy and the euro zone. Inflation would be high but bank and national solvency issues would recede. If the exit were done under these nationalistic pre-conditions of redomination, most of…
Why France will be forced out of the eurozone
"Faced with a choice between permanent slump and rising debt burdens (as economic contraction and deflation leads to inexorable increases in debt), countries will elect to quit the currency union. At least that route will allow them to…
What US GDP and jobless claims say about the US economy
We got two good proxies for the economic trajectory in the US this morning at 830 AM. Jobless claims were 402,000 with the 4-week moving average now settling in at 405,500. GDP rose an annualized 2.5% in the third quarter according to the…