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UK interest rate dissenter signals policy divergence may be coming to an end
As expected, the Bank of England left rates unchanged at a record low 0.25% in today’s Monetary Policy Committee decision. There was a dissent, however, with soon to be departing MPC member Kristin Forbes wanting a quarter-point rise.
The Fed will continue to raises rates, even amid uneven economic data
Today the Federal Reserve raised the base USFed Funds interest rate a quarter percentage point to the range between 0.75% and 1.00%. There was only one dissent from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. And because this move was…
The most important chart to see before the Dutch election
The present Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, is the first Prime Minister from a party other than the two traditional centrist parties, PdVA and the CDA, and their predecessor parties since the Dutch constitution and voting…
The shale oil bubble
Was the shale oil capital expenditure explosion simply a bubble? What trendline does this chart follow going forward and what does it mean for price? These are some fundamental questions that need to be answered.
Hedging against rising global political uncertainty
Starting in 2007, global markets were buffeted by a series of financial and economic crises that created the greatest deflationary scare since the Great Depression. We have left out-and-out crisis mode. But the challenges are still…
More on the oil oversupply and OPEC’s lost swing production dominance
Bloomberg oil analyst Javier Blas reported earlier today that Saudi Arabia has told OPEC that it lifted oil production in February, despite the ongoing OPEC production cut agreement with Russia.
US credit growth is decelerating across a variety of areas
This week all eyes will be on the Fed because of its expected interest rate hike and the messaging that will accompany its policy decision. But credit markets should also be focused elsewhere, because credit growth has been decelerating…
US jobs numbers come in high enough to prompt Fed rate hike
The BLS released the latest employment numbers for the US, the last piece of major economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on whether to raise interest rates. The numbers were good enough, and now a rate hike is all but…
Tomorrow’s jobs number would have to terrible to prevent a Fed hike
Tomorrow, the BLS will release the February jobs numbers for the US economy. This is the last piece of major US economic data before the Fed meets next week to decide on US monetary policy. All indications are that the number will be good.…
Oil drops below $50 a barrel on oversupply
For the first time in 3 months, oil dropped below $50 a barrel after crude inventories were shown rising by 8.2 million barrels last week. Inventory levels are now at their highest levels since the US government began recording data in…