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The US economy is doing OK right now
The composite picture I am getting shows the US economy still in that 2%ish channel it has been in for some time. This is lower than certainly President Trump wants and it is also lower than growth levels at cyclical peaks in the past. But…
Brexit is more important politically than it is economically
Today’s news coverage is non-stop Brexit. And this is a big event. But it is the political implications which matter; the economic impact will be more muted.
Subprime auto delinquency rate at highest level since financial crisis
Increased delinquencies in the auto sector will spell trouble given the high LTVs of loans and lower credit scores of borrowers. And I am troubled by the OCC’s depiction of the commercial real estate sector; we could see heavy loan losses…
Did the Greek bailout money go to ‘liquor and women’?
It is tragic that this ‘liquor and women’ quote is the discussion dominating headlines as the EU celebrates the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome.
Jobless claims up somewhat to 258,000 in week to 18 March 2017
Overall, the figures tell us the US employment picture is the best it has been since the Great Recession.
Some thoughts on Dijsselbloem’s ‘liquor and women’ intervention
Last week, I wrote how the Labour Party in the Netherlands suffered a historic defeat in parliamentary elections because voters questioned their priorities - and how this is emblematic of Western social democratic parties everywhere. And as…
You should be concerned about falling car prices and Ally’s profit warning
Yesterday, Ally Financial warned that profits would underperform expectations. Now, they dd not say that profits would fall or that they were taking credit writedowns. Neverthless, the warning is an important marker and should be of grave…
Will Brexit’s trigger, now set for 29 March, mean recession?
British Prime Minister Theresa May will trigger her country’s exit from the EU on 29 March, a spokesperson for the Prime Minister has confirmed. Afterwards, the clock will be ticking, as the UK will have two years to wind up any…
This is what the Dutch election was all about
On Wednesday night, the Dutch elections saw the two parties in the governing coalition lose 37 of the 79 seats they now hold between them. That's a massive defeat frankly. Yet, the Prime Minister's party is spinning this as a win. And for…
How jobless claims tick up before a recession hits
I am going to start commenting on the weekly jobless claims figure more actively because I like it as a real-time indicator. For me, it is the best real-time data point we have on how the employment picture intersects with consumption…