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Where Post-Keynesians and Austrians meet on economics
World views derived both from Austrian Economics and Post-Keynesian Economics suggest that so-called secular stagnation and the resulting political radicalization in Europe and the United States are here to stay. Here's why.
Auto sales stalling for the fourth month on the trot
From an economic perspective, the coming slowdown in production will dent GDP growth.
After Juncker-May, Britain as a tax haven is more credible
Right now, everyone is parsing what the 'disastrous' May-Juncker dinner means for UK-EU negotiations and for the British general election. My immediate thought, however, was about Britain as a tax haven. Let me outline why.
France: What Macron means when he says the EU must reform or face Frexit
At the weekend, French Presidential election frontrunner Emmanuel Macron told the BBC that EU leaders “have to face the situation, to listen to our people, and to listen to the fact that they are extremely angry today, impatient and the…
The Fed will continue to look through weak Q1 data
With demand for long-dated safe assets high, the yield curve will remain under flattening pressure. And that, combined with higher short-term rates will be negative for bank net interest margins and earnings.
Why the euro crisis will happen again and Italy will be involved
What happened in 2010 with Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland will happen again. But this time, Italy will be the first domino to fall. And when it does fall, Italian sovereign and bank credit risk will skyrocket. Caveat Emptor.
Trump is just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster, NAFTA edition
This morning, the Trump Administration called the leaders of Canada and Mexico to tell them that he "agreed not to terminate NAFTA at this time," showing, yet again, that Donald Trump is much less audacious a President than some expected.…
What will policy normalization mean for credit markets (wonkish)
Given recent hawkish Fed statements and the potential for even more than three hikes, all of this is bullish for longer-duration Treasuries but much less so for auto ABS, high yield and emerging markets.
Canada’s soft lumber and dairy are easy targets for Trump’s ‘America First’…
Donald Trump is a very media-centric public figure. And because the chatter in DC now is of Trump as a legislative failure during his first hundred days in office, Trump needs a win - and Canada is an easy target. Here’s why.
Why Macron is a risky bet for France and for Europe
About two months ago I wrote about Emmanuel Macron as a risk, rather than a saviour. Today, following his 1st round presidential victory in France, I feel even more that he represents a risk that is unappreciated. Here’s why.