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Weekly initial claims down to 236,000 as Q2 heads to 3% growth
The labor market in the US is tighter today than it was at the same period last year. This, in conjunction with the last jobs report, gives cover to the Fed to hike rates in June.
Why Comey’s dismissal is negative for the economy and markets
It is now clear that Donald Trump dismissed FBI Director James Comey in a fit of pique over the investigations into Trump’s ties to Russia. But this move has already backfired, with the Senate investigation issuing subpoenas to former Trump…
Competitiveness: two tales of systemic reform with Trump and Macron
I just finished reading an illuminating article by Andrew Ross Sorkin on healthcare and it got me to thinking about a review of structural reforms by Dani Rodrik which encapsulates the problem with fixes to ‘competitiveness’. The message:…
More Europe
At the height of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, German leader Angela Merkel was openly calling for ‘more Europe, not less’. With Emmanuel Macron elected to the Presidency of France on that platform, Merkel has perhaps her only chance…
Some thoughts on healthcare, inequality, and Baumol’s disease
Baumol was a giant in promoting entrepreneurship. And most importantly here, his theory on rising costs in labor intensive industries is something that the Nobel committee considered in 2003 and should have given him an award for.
Jobs data: The US will hike in June amid high structural unemployment
Remember the debates about structural unemployment back during the beginning of this recovery. The question was whether policymakers would write off a whole cadre of workers as ‘unemployable’ and formulate policy as if they weren’t…
What the tension in the oil market means
As we await the US jobs data, it bears remembering that oil is a big wildcard both on in terms of consumption and investment. Right now, oil is plunging, down as much as $14 a barrel for the Brent variant and $17 a barrel for WTI since…
Some brief thoughts on Brexit negotiations and the Norway model
All negotiations are mechanisms to split the benefits of mutually acceptable outcomes. The point is to figure out if there actually is a mutually acceptable outcome, and then to get as much of the benefit for one’s side as possible. The…
April 2017 Jobless claims show the US economy chugging along
Claims data are still consistent with an economy adding 200,000 per month, meaning we should expect a snap back from last month’s low figure when the US jobs numbers are released tomorrow.
Can Macron reform Europe?: A mental model for thinking about the economics
Having written the last piece on the intersection of Austrian economics and Post-Keynesian economics, I was asking myself the question: so what? Yes, the punch line of the piece was that both of these schools of thought lead to a world view…