Credit Writedowns

This post was first published on Patreon on 20 Jun 2018 Last July, I was in Germany for a high school graduation. And as the only American family member in attendance, I got a lot of questions about Donald Trump. What I said then was that…

This is a 2019 outcome. For now, it's smooth sailing economically. But when this cycle turn, it will turn hard.

Increasing the pace of quantitative tightening in lieu of raising rates would give the Fed the opportunity to test what impact this has on the slope of the yield curve.

Once upon a time, Fed policy wasn't about finetuning macro outcomes. It was about maintaining the safety, siundness and stability of our banking and credit system.

Editor's note: A version of this post was originally published at my Patreon account on 13 Jun I have another more macro post on the Fed I am developing for later today. But I wanted to run this one by you because I am seeing a lot of…

We're in the midst of another technology bubble. And Tesla has benefitted greatly. When this bubble pops, where will Tesla be?

My expectation is for the Fed to raise rates, keep guidance the same but be slightly more hawkish.

In the midterms, the Democrats, on the other hand, are hoping to generate a lot of enthusiasm by being against Trump. But I am not at all convinced this will turn out negatively for Trump and the Republicans.

The Italian government will do whatever it takes to remain in the Euro. When others outside of government talk about Italexit and the like, it is meaningless. That's the message Tria is sending.

Maybe he just wants to get concessions out of the Chinese and the Mexicans and he is willing to take heat on (temporarily) damaging relationships with the Canadians. I suspect this may be what he is after.