Credit Writedowns

Right now, we are still very much in the bull market phase. So the number of macro theses which make money are limited. US curve flattening and the prospect of Fed overtightening presents the best risk/reward.

The Fed is likely to continue to talk up the US economy. And I believe markets will react. With the yield curve at 32 basis points spread between 2- and 1-year Treasuries, we still have scope for further curve flattening.

Why does the German immigration spat matter? It's not just about refugees. It's about German hegemony and European cohesion. This post explains.

Seehofer is and has been threatening to blow up the governing coalition for some time. But will he actually do it? Will blowing up the coalition backfire? No one knows. He certainly doesn't. So he may just be bluffing.

Note: This post first appeared on Patreon on 2 Jul 2018 I saw a Twitter exchange this morning that reminded me that the Fed is facing a political crisis due to its quantitative easing program. And I think this will limit the Fed's…

My own view is that getting the economics makes macro hard is problem number one. But just as big a problem is that macro investing is supposed to be contrarian. And contrarian bets work best when the world is in a panic and volatility is…

GDPNow for the second quarter is still at a breathtakingly high 4.5%. And it's beginning to look like we are going to come in well above 3% growth for the quarter. Consensus estimates are at 3.5%. Meanwhile the yield curve continues to…

This post was first published on Patreon on 22 Jun 2018 I was just having an email exchange with Marshall Auerback and a hedge fund friend of ours about immigration. And I thought I would share some of my thoughts on this given what's…

The crisis is that the political center continues to weaken even though Europe, at least on paper, is enjoying a broad economic expansion. 

China's membership in the WTO has been a disaster for Western manufacturing, employment and wages.