Credit Writedowns

Global equities have rallied.  Of course,  stock prices are not the end all and be all, but it stands in stark contrast to the cries that the sky is falling.

I think we need to follow this issue. It is a perfect intersection of energy security, foreign policy and financial issues that are very important for Europe and the US.

The yield curve has flattened to the point where two-year yields are only 25 basis points lower than 10-year yields. I have been predicting this outcome for several months and see this as a level to worry about the Fed's ability to engineer…

UPDATE 815AM EDT: I see Reuters has reported that "Trump says that NATO allies have committed to raising defense spending beyond 2 percent of GDP." This reporting validates everything I write here. ------------ We have a lot of new…

Trump is not merely a loudmouth, making enemies of America's allies. He is trying to muscle out Vladimir Putin and his Nord Stream 2 pipeline so that US oil and gas companies can benefit.

Editor's note: This post was first published on Patreon on 27 June 2018. The United States governments spends money by keystroke. And though it is forced by law to sell bonds when its accounts at the Fed run low, this artificial…

Turkish bond yields are skyrocketing as the Turkish lira plummets. The question, though, is whether Turkey is an outlier or a sign of more to come.

I was out when the US jobs numbers came out on Friday. But they were good. And strangely, that's particularly because the unemployment rate increased.

This post first appeared on Patreon on 9 Jul 2018 Last week, I wrote up a macro bond play that involves three parts: currencies, spread differentials and default risk. I want to hone in on one of those three today: currencies. And here's…

As long as the EU remains vastly richer than countries in North and central Africa, there will be a flow of migrants to the EU. And Italy and Greece will get the lion's share of those migrants, fuelling anti-immigrant politics. With Eastern…