Credit Writedowns

The sense I get is that Powell is a closet Taylor Rule devotee. If I'm right, then the neutral rate is quite a bit higher than where we are now.

This is Credit Writedowns daily newsletter for 19 Jul 2018. The big issues: the US economy, Fed policy, currencies, trade and government deficits.

The Trump Administration has launched an investigation into auto imports on national security grounds. But trade in uranium may be closest to what reasonable people might think as a national security issue.

People have a bias toward belief. And in the virtual world where the Internet dominates news sources, this has big consequences.

Internet is for data. Aside from emailing people, the whole purpose of using the Internet is to sift through data and find the piece of data you want: the lowest price, the funniest video, the best movie. So a service provider, the more…

These are conflicting narratives, yes. But they don't have to be because, as Minsky quipped, stability breeds instability.

There is no need for doom and gloom yet. Right now, it's about as good as it gets.

Trump's actions make German politicians of all stripes more committed to Europe. Mainstream German parties realize they need the EU more than ever.

Tesla is a completely speculative, junk-rated venture. Investors in the company are betting on Elon Musk's celebrity as a forward-thinker, hoping he can ramp up production and achieve significant economies of scale

Oil prices are at a point where Donald Trump may consider using the using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to provide modest price relief to consumers.