Credit Writedowns

At some point, the ECB will likely be called into action. And they will give Italy an ultimatum on the fiscal front, just as they did with Greece.

I continue to believe that the bond bear market thesis is flawed. Money managers following it will lose a lot of money.

Note: This post first appeared on Patreon on 30 May 2018 After I wrote the last post, Kent Willard made a really good comment about service sector jobs versus goods-producing jobs that I want to expand upon. He said "there's a growing…

The lower the headline unemployment rate number goes, the more likely the Fed is to guide to two rate hikes in 2018.

This post was originally published on Patreon on 30 May 2018 Yesterday I said that I believed the Italian meltdown presented a buying opportunity because it was not existential. And today, calm has returned, actually sooner than I had…

In December 2017 the US federal corporate tax rate on profits over $10 million was reduced from 35% to 21%. This column examines the plausibility of the Council of Economic Advisers’ estimates of how a cut in the corporate profit tax rate…

Fiscal policy space is limited first and foremost because of the threat of default. So governments are forced to act pro-cyclically.

By Marc Chandler This post first appeared on Marc to Market Investors are seeing turmoil in the capital markets and a decline in US interest rates, including at the short-end.  Some are suggesting that market has become less confident of…

For now, think of Italy as a short-term risk-off trigger that has limited longer-term impact. To me, this presents a buying opportunity.

For about a week now, I have been writing posts on a website called Patreon. And I want to explain what I am doing and how you can help me.