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Daily commentary: On panic, retrenchment and deleveraging
The Martin Wolf piece about panic becoming all too rational fits very nicely with the macro case i made earlier today. He points to the private sector indebtedness and subsequent retrenchment as well as to the policy errors that have come…
Macro outline of causes and effects of and predictions for the global financial crisis
This post is a brief outline in bullet points of my macro view of the global financial crisis both in terms of cause and effect and prediction. My goal here is to help me crystallize what the real issues are and how they are likely to play…
Daily commentary: On the global growth slowdown and US multinational earnings
The link I want to highlight today is on the relationship between the slowdown in growth globally and US multinational earnings.
Full Text: George Soros on reflexivity and a potential eurozone breakup
Editor's Note: The following is the text of recent remarks on the European sovereign debt crisis made by legendary investor George Soros at the Festival of Economics in Trento, Italy.
Daily commentary: on gold-backed European Maastricht compliant sinking fund
This is a belated commentary for Friday. I have a lot of links on the global growth slowdown today but I covered this earlier saying Weak global economic data signal likelihood of global recession. I wanted to highlight Marshall Auerback's…
Economists are becoming concerned about Canada’s housing market
Canadian home prices have been growing quite rapidly, particularly as compared to the US. Some may argue that this is justified because Canada's unemployment rate is lower. 8.1% in the US vs. 7.4% in Canada. Is that enough to justify such a…
Shockingly Poor US Employment Data
The US employment report was simply terrible. Adding insult to injury the April was revised lower as well. The dollar initially firmed, but as participants consider the risks of QE3, the upside momentum stalled.
Weak global economic data signal likelihood of global recession
The economic data today from a number of different corners has been poor. In Asia, Europe and the US, manufacturing data point to continued slowdown. In the US, weak jobs numbers do as well. It has been clear for some time that growth was…
Chart of the day: Net Target2 Balances in Eurosystem show capital flight
The Target2 problem is really a manifestation of an accelerating bank run. I have said many times, this is my major concern, the bank runs and the resulting shrinking credit and likely deadweight loss that accompanies them.
Daily commentary: closing in on the next euro zone crisis solution
The euro zone continues to dominate the headlines, with both Spain and Greece on the verge of collapse. Ireland, however, has voted in a referendum today to decide whether it accepts the fiscal treaty that Germany has been pushing for in…