Credit Writedowns

Two weeks ago I argued Europe is on the brink of something very big. But the Spanish deal is not it. After the deal, markets rallied initially but soon afterwards, Spanish and Italian sovereign bonds sold off and are at the still elevated…

By Michael Pettis About ten years ago I published an article in Foreign Policy that I just recently re-read.  In the article I extended one of the arguments I made in my book, The Volatility Machine, that the globalization process is…

The big news yesterday was that Ben Bernanke did not back up Janet Yellen's dovish commentary from the night before. Fed Chair Bernanke did say that the Fed was prepared to use unconventional measures to maintain an accommodative stance.…

As I first described here in late April, the Spanish bailout is looking like a bailout of Spanish banks instead of the sovereign. Spain's debt to GDP is still relatively low and so the thinking is that the sovereign debt problems there are…

Though Vice Chairman, Janet Yellen, threw the bugs some QE red meat, Chairman Bernanke disappointed. We were expecting more positive QE speak from Mr. Bernanke, but not surprised by the sell-off.

The following is the text of a much anticipated speech Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen gave at the Boston Economic Club Dinner, in Boston, Massachusetts on monetary policy last night. Yellen emphasized the need for the Fed to remain…

From a game theory perspective, the moment one of the 17 eurozone member countries realises it would be better off outside the eurozone, it has everything to gain from being the first mover. We have all been led to believe that a break-up…

As I indicated on 27 April on Why the Spanish bailout may be to recap the banks instead of sovereign, I don't believe the Europeans are going to bail out the Spanish sovereign. Instead, given that Spain has low sovereign debt to GDP, the…

The US inflation indexed treasury curve (TIPS curve) has inverted sharply in the short end. The one-year TIPS yield went from negative 2.5% to zero in a matter of four months. The one-year treasury (nominal) yield on the other hand has held…

The eurozone’s architects failed to follow through with the logic of a political union. Nobody cares about “trade imbalances” in the Canadian confederation. And nobody would care if Alberta, for example, were to run perpetual trade…