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US yield curve now steeper than most developed countries
The treasury yield curve remains quite steep by historical standards. Typically such steepness is driven by expectations of higher inflation in the future. But as discussed earlier, that is not the case in the US. Instead it is the…
2014 Outlook: Annus Not-So-Horribilis
This post represents Marc Chandler's thoughts on key topics to watch in markets and the economy for 2014
Japan, Abenomics, the consolidated balance sheet and nationalism
With Shinzo Abe’s radical economic policy shift now one year old, now is an appropriate time to look back and assess its effectiveness. I see results principally in asset prices and to a degree on inflation. However, it is not clear that…
US credit risk appetite hits euphoria
US corporate credit is outperforming other forms of credit assets such as commercial real estate. A good way to see that outperformance vs. global risk assets is in the components of the Credit Suisse Risk Appetite Index. For the first time…
Why, Abe?
Shinzo Abe is a smart man and savvy politician. He has the rare honor of being Japan's prime minister twice. He is celebrating his first year of his second (non-consecutive) term in office. In fact, it is on that very anniversary that he…
Retail sales data in the US mean better growth expectations
The data for the holiday season suggest that that consumer spending in the United States remains robust. Though wage growth has yet to pick up, consumer spending remains robust enough to fuel further economic gains into 2014.
Bubbles, debt and economic growth, Paul Krugman edition
We need to abandon the Loanable Funds model of lending, which treats banks as “mere intermediaries” and therefore ignores them in macroeconomics. the Neoclassical belief in Loanable Funds is the biggest barrier there is to the development…