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US refineries’ production hits a record; reasons for the increase misunderstood
During the month of December large money managers have been once again beefing up their long bets on crude oil. What's driving this push into crude? This drawdown in crude was the result of US refineries firing on all cylinders,…
China update: local government debt, Yasukuni reaction, IPOs and more
By The Brown Brothers Harriman Currency Strategy Team
We call attention to four recent items in China: First, central bank deputy governor penned an article yesterday saying that China will expand the opening-up of the foreign exchange…
Finance and economic themes on my mind as 2014 begins
Clearly, most analysis for 2014 is upbeat. Economists are predicting higher global growth, higher U.S. growth, an end to the sovereign debt crisis and all manner of positive economic outcomes. And I think all of this upbeat analysis is…
Correcting Some Misconceptions About A New Secular Bull Market
As I was preparing to write my annual "Outlook and Forecast" for 2014, I read many different views from major Wall Street firms to get a general feel of the consensus. However, during the course of my research I read one piece of work in…
When it comes to current account imbalances, one nation stands out
Over the past few decades there has been a great deal of focus on the large trade imbalance between the US and Asia - first with Japan and more recently with China. While that is still an issue, we may be facing a new imbalance that is…
Review: How My Ten Surprises for 2013 Fared
In 2012, I started the subscriber newsletter out with Ten Surprises for 2012. The goal was to give Credit Writedowns Pro subscribers a list of things that investors only assigned one in three odds of occurring that I believed had a fifty…
Some brief thoughts on Bitcoin
2013 has been a breakout year for Bitcoin, the virtual payment system. I haven’t written anything on it to date but I have been following the market. Here are some ideas on Bitcoin based on what I have seen.