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Browsing Category
Political Economy
Market Takes Italian Political Turmoil in Stride
By Marc Chandler
The Italian 10-year premium over Germany (white line) has generally fallen over the past year as the dollar against the euro (yellow line).
Of course, as one would expect the euro is more volatile than the 10-year…
US politicians looking to avoid confrontation as debt ceiling looms
By Marc Chandler
The US debt ceiling looms. The House Republicans are still formulating their strategy. Treasury Secretary Lew has said his ability to maneuver will be exhausted by February 27. While this sounds like ample time to avoid a…
Turmoil in emerging markets: What’s missing from the story?
The Federal Reserve’s ‘taper talk’ in spring 2013 has been blamed for outflows of capital from emerging markets. This column argues that global growth prospects and uncertainty are more important drivers of emerging-market capital flows…
ECB’s next steps could involve suspending SMP sterilization – instant QE
Today Credit Suisse confirmed our earlier assessment that the ECB will be shifting toward a looser monetary stance in the near future via "suspension of the SMP sterilization".
Seven latest developments in Venezuela – a crisis in the making
Below are seven recent developments in Venezuela's economy
As labor force participation declines, should the Fed tweak its forward guidance?
The issue should be well known for US economy watchers. The unemployment rate has declined noticeably but if we factor in the declining labour force participation rate the picture looks largely unchanged. Should the Fed, then, shift focus…
Five reasons the ECB will act in the months ahead
It may be something symbolic such as a small rate cut or possibly a more substantial move such as a new LTRO program, but the European Central Bank will be forced to loosen monetary policy in the near future.
The impact of reform on growth in China
I got a lot of feedback from my January 5 blog entry because of my argument that the implementation of the reforms proposed in the Third Plenum all but guarantees that growth rates in China will slow down. For that reason I thought it might…
Chart of the day: Emerging markets and the Taylor Rule
According to Wikipedia, the Taylor rule is a “monetary-policy rule that stipulates how much the central bank should change the nominal interest rate in response to changes in inflation, output, or other economic conditions.” It is named…
Italian Events Spinning Away from Letta and Alfano Government
By Marc Chandler
Political developments in Italy are happening faster than Prime Minister Letta can maneuver. The economy he is overseeing is the poster child of ECB President Draghi's assessment of a weak, fragile and uneven recovery in…