Political Economy

With Donald Trump set to give his State of the Union address, Democrats and Independents have gone from positive in 2017 to negative in 2018, while Republicans have gone in the other direction.

Gallup has done a deeper dive into the data in its latest poll, which I highlighted last night. The numbers show small businesses content with the state of the economy, giving the Trump Administration high marks in this area.

Now that the Trump tax cuts have been passed and US companies have had the opportunity to incorporate the changes into their projections, we are starting to see big payoffs, particularly for banks. This development is supportive of further…

We see economic growth everywhere in the global economy for the first time in many years. Let's put this economic period in context and talk about opportunities and threats.

The question: When November comes, will voters shun the GOP because they dislike Trump or will they look at the economy and return the GOP back to two more years of total control?

I’ve looked at Ian Bremmer's list of potential geopolitical crisis triggers and the one that stands out for me is North Korea. And so I want to use the bombing of Kosovo as a historical precedent to explain what could be driving US…

Italy's election has the potential for some surprises. The Five Star Movement, which is polling first in surveys, has pledged a referendum on the euro if Brussels does not change its fiscal rules. Berlusoni's Forza Italia and Salvini's…

The working economic model in North America and Europe is one in which the central bank and the fiscal agents are working at cross-purposes, with the central bank doing the heavy lifting if stimulus is desired.

When we talk about winners and losers in Euroland, the natural question is, “how can you make everybody a winner?”. And I think this is important while Euroland goes through a cyclical upswing since that’s when reforms can actually be the…

My first words out of the gate this year at Credit Writedowns were that “given the economic data, I am starting 2018 in a surprisingly downbeat mood.” And I went on to say I don’t know why, but that I would tell you why when I figured it…