Political Economy

Donald Trump tweeted that he has appointed John Bolton as National Security Advisor. Bolton is a neo-conservative thinker with hawkish views on North Korea and Iran. His appointment is a sign that "Trump Unchained"is a change toward a more…

Right before the inauguration, US President Trump tried to use Taiwan for negotiating leverage against China. This proved a non-starter. Trump is now unchained from moderating influences. So, the 'Taiwan Card' is back on the table.…

The Fed will play a key role in 2018 if the US economy slows. But the real unknown is geopolitical, much of it driven by Donald Trump. As Trump's poll numbers have remained low, as the stock market has begun to falter and Republican…

It seems like just a week ago, we were talking about synchronized global growth. Suddenly signs of deceleration are everywhere. And bond markets are feeling it. I don't see the economy falling out of bed though, barring an exogenous shock.…

Many US public sector pension funds are underfunded. This will impact local governments' solvency in the next downturn. It could also threaten the safety and security of the municipal bond market. So the Fed may end up playing a role.

A speech by Lael Brainard on economic headwinds turning to tailwinds suggests a regime shift is at hand at the Fed. Meanwhile, US President Trump is expected to announce tariffs on steel and aluminum. Mexico has already said it would…

Political risk in Europe is centered on outcomes in Germany and Italy. First, the SPD could decide not to participate in another coalition with Merkel. And second, the 5-Star Movement won a plurality of the votes.

Regardless of what happens in NAFTA, we are going to see the Trump Administration put its 'America First' trade policy in play. Likely within the month, tariffs are coming.

Fear political populism and the loss of democracy but embrace economic populism as necessary.

The short-term solution reached last month to extend the US federal government's funding expires on Thursday.