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Browsing Category
Political Economy
Secular stagnation is a policy choice
In my most recent posts, I have been saying that bond markets are pricing in secular stagnation scenarios based on how shallow the yield curve is. But secular stagnation is a policy choice. And that is something I thought I should highlight…
The economics for populism no longer exist in Europe
While the economy in the UK was favourable for Corbyn last week, I don’t think the economics support populism elsewhere in Europe right now. Everywhere you look, the populists are in retreat in Europe. And that will give the EU breathing…
All politics are local: understanding Trump’s threats and misunderstanding Merkel’s…
What Angela Merkel was doing this past weekend when she spoke of the need for Europe to “take our fate into our own hands” was using an international issue for domestic purposes.
The threat of an overheated German economy
The Eurozone economy is doing really well. Some data points to 3% growth. The German economy is doing even better – with some data pointing to 5% annualized growth. But there’s a downside – overheating. And with the ECB at negative rates…
Why Macron’s work was made harder by German regional elections
Germany held elections in Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW) this past weekend. And the results, while encouraging for Angela Merkel’s CDU, point to difficulties that lie ahead for French President Emmanuel Macron’s reform agenda in Europe. This is…
What Schäuble is really saying about Macron and Europe
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble talked to German weekly Der Spiegel about the election of Emmanuel Macron as French President, and this interview is being widely quoted in the English-language press without benefit of a…
Why Comey’s dismissal is negative for the economy and markets
It is now clear that Donald Trump dismissed FBI Director James Comey in a fit of pique over the investigations into Trump’s ties to Russia. But this move has already backfired, with the Senate investigation issuing subpoenas to former Trump…
Competitiveness: two tales of systemic reform with Trump and Macron
I just finished reading an illuminating article by Andrew Ross Sorkin on healthcare and it got me to thinking about a review of structural reforms by Dani Rodrik which encapsulates the problem with fixes to ‘competitiveness’. The message:…
More Europe
At the height of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, German leader Angela Merkel was openly calling for ‘more Europe, not less’. With Emmanuel Macron elected to the Presidency of France on that platform, Merkel has perhaps her only chance…
Some brief thoughts on Brexit negotiations and the Norway model
All negotiations are mechanisms to split the benefits of mutually acceptable outcomes. The point is to figure out if there actually is a mutually acceptable outcome, and then to get as much of the benefit for one’s side as possible. The…