Political Economy

For the past several years, I have been trying to write more about outcomes and less about theories and policy prescriptions. But, like anyone, I have a core set of beliefs on economics and a lot more. Economics is not a science; it is a…

A detour to the other side of the pond I have two big picture issues on my mind this morning. The first is the US economy and the US policy response. I think the Neil Irwin piece in the New York Times encapsulates a lot of the thinking on…

It's news Friday time. Like last week, I want to switch things up a bit and focus on the news. I am going to present a news story. And then I am going to expand on it, riffing off it and giving you 'my take' on the story. Hopefully, this…

Recalling "Trump Unchained" It started with the sacking of his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in March 2018, almost a year ago. US President Donald Trump has gradually but forcefully unchained himself from moderating influences in his…

The Federal Reserve's about-face on rates between December and January looks a lot more rational in the context of the US economic data released today. We saw US retail sales unexpectedly fall in December, posting the worst drop in nine…

Obama's missed opportunity In 2009 and beyond, the Obama Administration had a unique opportunity to not just recalibrate, but to replace the existing economic paradigm. They didn't do that, largely because Obama and his closest policy…

There is a shift going on in Germany which has the center-left party moving away from the center after disastrous election results. And I think this is a significant signpost of the center-left's abandonment of the policies championed by…

I just got this via email from the US Labor Department: In the week ending February 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 253,000. The…

For the past decade since the financial crisis, China has largely supplied incremental global liquidity. This is a fundamental change from previous decades where the US was the fulcrum. But, today the Chinese have realized they can no…

In the US stock market, technology stocks are leading the rally from the deeply oversold levels in December. And that has a lot of people thinking the worst is over. But this is just a relief rally. The real economy is actually…