Markets

The Chinese 2-5 year swap spread has flattening to 1 basis point. The last time it was so flat was 2008.

The Chinese will be pleased. Holders of other government liabilities, not so much. If it comes to this, expect it to be negative for economic growth.

A stalemate could mean selective default. However, my sense is that the bonds themselves will be paid first. Other government expenditures will not get paid and that means a hardship for those who expect the money, whether companies doing…

Economist Robert Shiller spoke with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart" on Tuesday. Shiller sees the likely austerity that the US will see as a result of the debt ceiling debate as negative for housing…

History has a message for us: No fiat currency has lasted forever. Eventually, they all fail. Morgan Stanley reported in 2009 that there’s “no historical precedent” for an economy that exceeds a 250% debt-to-GDP ratio without experiencing…

CMA sources credit prices directly from the world’s largest and most active credit investors. Data from CMA show that the US leads the list amongst sovereign credit default swap wideners today.

Treasuries are more expensive to use as collateral for the borrowing that banks do in the ordinary course of business.

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices were released this morning. As usual, I use the seasonally unadjusted numbers to see what is happening. The numbers show that home prices dropped 4.5% in the year to May 2011, with every market down…

Apparently, there was a reason that Soros was 75% in cash. He is getting out of the hedge fund business altogether, liquidating assets and returning the funds to investors.

No, but stocks and bonds are down. Global equity markets are down and safe havens like gold and the Swiss Franc are up. Stan Collender thinks the likelihood of a deal is less than many believe.