Markets

US growth concerns and downgrade risk remain in play after budget deal. Euro zone periphery remains under pressure as ECB meets Thursday. SNB takes action against strong CHF; spike in EUR/CHF offers good entry point to go long CHF.

Institutional investors have learned how to create and game self-fulfilling prophecy runs in various asset markets. (George Soros understood this and demonstrated its efficacy with his effort to break the pound in 1992.) Indeed, this is one…

Here is some more color on the Fitch comments on the US. First headline to hit the tapes was that the “deal reached is commensurate with AAA rating.” However, the full statement is that “commensurate with its 'AAA' rating, the risk of…

The Telegraph is reporting that the euro zone sovereign debt crisis has reached such a critical flash point that Italy has called an emergency meeting. In Spain, the Prime Minister has delayed his summer holidays to deal with the fallout.

Here’s a Bloomberg chart of the yield on 10-year German bonds since reunification. The overall trend is down, most precipitously since 2009.

The Europeans can’t catch a break. The crisis has already flared before they have had a legitimate opportunity to deal with the medium- and longer-term issues. Willem Buiter says the Europeans need a 2.5 trillion euro EFSF to deal with…

Is the PBoC going to stop buying US treasuries? The debt ceiling debate and a potential default have brought this question back into the spotlight. The theoretical and the real world answer to concerns about China and US debt is the same:…

US leaders agree on budget deal, but House vote poses event risk ahead of August 2 deadline. Euro zone periphery benefits from improved market sentiment, but remains vulnerable. Equities and EM FX firm today on US news and stronger than…

Almost everything that happened last week is irrelevant given what looks like a U.S. debt deal. What we’re watching is how the relief rally holds and whether the Friday’s poor GDP data was a game changer. Looking under the surface of the…

The signal we’re extracting from the weekly move of the Four Horsemen is that though concern and the lack of confidence in the U.S. over the debt ceiling issue has increased, other factors, such as the deflationary consequences of a large…