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Markets
Macro myopia on tapering and a preview of the week’s highlights
Those inclined to the Fed tapering in December seem myopic. The employment was not the only economic report that was released before the weekend. The US also reported that the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the deflator for core…
Dovish Draghi Unlikely to Derail Euro
- The euro was bid to new highs for the move earlier in Asia to $1.3640 before pulling back to the figure to await the ECB meeting
- This price action cautions against expecting a reversal of the trend in response to today's developments,…
The fragile recovery and the rise in asset prices
Now that Europe is on the mend, the initial phase of the financial crisis is clearly in the rearview mirror. Equity prices, bonds prices and house prices have risen by leaps and bounds even before this economic recovery was clear. Yet, the…
Macro Drivers for the Week Ahead, 2 Dec 2013
Five central banks from high income countries meet this week: Australia, Canada, Norway, Britain, and the euro area. None are expected to announce a change in policy – but if there is a surprise, it would most likely come from the The US…
Developed economy house price-to-rent ratios from Canada to Japan
Drawing on research by the IMF's Hites Ahir and Prakash Loungani, the chart compares the house-price-to-rent ratio compared with the historical average. This is a standard measure of valuation. Clearly by such a metric, the recovery in…
Brent-WTI spread widens again, discount shifts to the Gulf
The spread between crude oil traded in the international markets and the US benchmark, the so-called Brent-WTI spread has blown out once again. It's now approaching levels not seen since February.
Dollar Weaker for Thanksgiving
Below is a selection of economic and political events affecting currency markets.
The Fed’s dominance of the MBS market
At its current pace the Fed is taking about half a trillion of MBS securities out of the market. In fact the Fed is now removing more than 100% of the paper that is being issued.
When are markets “rational”?
To me, much of the argument about whether or not markets are efficient misses the point. There are conditions, it seems, under which markets seem to do a great job of managing risk, keeping the cost of capital reasonable, and allocating…
Corporate credit markets look frothy
This summer's growing fears of the Fed's impending policy change hit a number of fixed income sectors quite hard. While corporate credit was the best performer on a relative basis, it too was hit by some sell-off and a decline in liquidity.…