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Browsing Category
Economy
Amid plummeting trade growth, Chinese productivity trends are macro bearish
In recent months, we have seen a precipitous drop in Chinese trade growth. This comes from both the export and the import side. What's happening? A large part of it is wages. As I indicated two years ago in a post on the Lewis Turning…
Another chart of the day: Greek bank deposits collapse
The chart below via Reuters' Scott Barber is what an economic depression looks like. It covers Greek bank deposits from 1998 to present.
More on the political economy of the coming Grexit
In February I wrote about the political economy of a Greek default (and euro zone exit), predicting that a Grexit was all but inevitable. In the last few days, there has been an almost feverish debate about this issue, so I wanted to update…
China’s growth is slowing much faster than expected
The latest data out of China will give those expecting a soft landing pause about China's economic situation. While inflation has come down somewhat of late, so too have industrial output and capital investment. This is creating EM feedback…
On Europe’s advancing preparations for the Grexit
The evidence is becoming increasingly clear that German policy makers are prepared for Greece to exit the euro zone. Knowing this changes how one should view the likely policy responses in Europe. In the short term, this means allowing more…
More on the mean-reverting economic surprise index
A few of the investment banks have a macro or economic surprise index. In March I mentioned Barclays' version. This month I wanted to highlight Citi's version and what it is telling us about the US economy.
Chart of the day: US Real Personal Income Growth
The ECRI released the following chart on the year-over-year growth in US real personal income. The takeaway here is that personal income growth is seriously flagging going into the fiscal cliff which promises to turn income growth decidedly…
Achuthan: The US will be in recession by the end of next month
Lakshman Achuthan is sticking to his call that the US will enter recession in the second half of 2012. He spoke to CNBC's Squawk Box crew about it this morning. Take a look.
Gillard to push Australia into recession?
Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard clearly doesn't understand the financial sector balances because she is about to make a policy mistake which will likely tip her economy into recession. This is a gold-level post.
Global Growth Is Slowing
So momentum is weakening across the entire global economy at the present point, not just in say Europe, or China. Global output is still growing but it is growing at an increasingly weaker pace. What could change that?