Economy

Perceptions have certainly changed a lot in the last few months. As recently as three years ago there were so few analysts who were skeptical about the sustainability of Chinese growth that we rarely disagreed among ourselves. Now, however,…

Scott Barber of Reuters shows us with the chart below that over the last 30 years bad debt in Spain has tracked unemployment and moved inversely with GDP growth. The higher the percentage of doubtful loans is, the lower GDP growth and the…

the ECB decided to prop up the German economy with low interest rates, rates that produced negative real interest rates and housing bubbles in Ireland and Spain. This was a policy designed to "bail out" the indebted German economy. We…

The latest data out of Argentina are just one month's data. But the trend is clear and it is alarming: economic growth is slowing dramatically in Argentina. Three articles in Argentine dailies point out the nexus of issues developing around…

Charles Kindleberger’s classic book on the Great Depression was originally published 40 years ago. In the preface to a new edition, two leading economists argue that the lessons are as relevant as ever.

The US employment report was simply terrible. Adding insult to injury the April was revised lower as well. The dollar initially firmed, but as participants consider the risks of QE3, the upside momentum stalled.

The Target2 problem is really a manifestation of an accelerating bank run. I have said many times, this is my major concern, the bank runs and the resulting shrinking credit and likely deadweight loss that accompanies them.

The following press release was issued just today by Moody's the ratings agency in conjunction with a recent ratings action on Danish banks.

We are now in another existential crisis for the euro zone with yields on sovereign debt from Spain and Italy spiking well over 6%. We have been here before, most recently in November. Then, it was Italy in Spain's position as the lead…

This week's newsletter is going to focus on how risk assets are setup given the continuing global growth slowdown and likely policy responses to it. The overall thesis is that shares and high yield bonds in the US are short-term oversold…