Economy

The June retail sales report was simply dismal. Not only did sales decline by 0.5% in June rather than rise 0.2% as the consensus expected, but the April data were revised. The measure used for GDP calculations, excludes gasoline, auto…

Just when you think that things can get no worse in Spain, they do.

I would love to see ECRI explain why they have changed the date when they felt recession would begin and whether this means they were wrong in forecasting recession in 2011. yesterday, I said " I don’t think Achuthan is changing his story…

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is a brilliant political tactician. After the latest EU Summit, it seemed she had capitulated after being rounded on by France's Hollande in an effort by Italy's Monti and Spain's Rajoy to prevent the market…

I have Bloomberg copy and a video of a recent performance by ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan on Tom Keene's show. A lot of people have been pouring scorn on business cycle forecaster Achuthan because of his company's recession forecast. I suspect…

People’s Bank of China today cut the 1-year lending rate by 31 bp to 6% and the 1-year deposit rate by 25 bp to 3%. It also widened the allowable discount that commercial banks can offer on loans from 20% to 30%. This gives the PBOC rate…

Scarcity is a powerful force and it leaves those in control of limited resources wielding great power. We think a scarcity of uranium will increase Russia's power; control over some of the last big, easy oil deposits has earned Saudi Arabia…

Comstock Partners argues that slowing growth as well as deficit and debt problems in the Eurozone, U.S., China and the emerging nations increases the odds of a deflationary global recession and a renewed down leg in the ongoing secular bear…

The real solution has nothing to do with the Fed because the constraints are demand side and not supply side. But people will continue to exhort the Fed to do more and so they will do more.

This week I am doing the weekly newsletter in two parts, both outside the paywall. This is part two. Previously, this column argued that it was folly for the euro zone to take the bailout and austerity approach because it risked breaking…