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Browsing Category
Economy
Income inequality, corporate inversions and financial engineering
What I am going to discuss today is financial gimmickry and wage growth. This piece is an outgrowth of a piece I am writing for the New York Times on corporate buybacks and capital investment plus a segment I recently did on Boom Bust at RT…
3 Things American Workers Can Expect in the Next Year
The gist of the piece here is that, while I see a cyclical recovery that is gathering pace, the Achilles heel of the recovery from a sustainability perspective is wage growth. To the degree the Fed normalizes policy now before wage growth…
The disaster in Europe versus data in the US (plus China and Argentina)
Despite the title, this is not a mono-themed post but more of a highlight of recent news and data and their importance in interpreting the direction of the economy and potential effect on markets. I do want to concentrate on European and US…
Cyclical recovery petering out before it hits middle class
Before I get into the details today, I want to note that going forward, I may not have the bandwidth to be able to post on a daily basis. I am going to try. But there are definitely going to be weekdays going forward where I won’t be able…
My thoughts on weakness in Europe and China
I am back from my summer holiday. There has been a lot of news in the time since I last posted. And the news flow is coming from a lot of different places. So, let me start up again with a post highlighting what I think are some of the key…
Some brief thoughts on private debt, financial fragility and economic growth
I am very interested in the intersection of private debt, financial fragility and economic growth because I believe this intersection is pivotal in understanding whether the secular forces which led to the Great Financial Crisis have been…
Upbeat cyclical trends are juxtaposed to underlying financial fragility
This post is on the same topic of the US economy that I addressed yesterday. But I want to go a bit deeper and add more colour to my comments. Signs that the US economy’s cyclical outlook are improving are getting ever more numerous,…
US GDP numbers and Russian sanctions scenarios
The bottom line here is that I have been and still am bullish on the cyclical prospects in the US, UK and Spain in particular. The US jobless claims numbers are unusually low and that tells you that slack in the labour market is declining.…
Exogenous shocks
As I write this, Twitter is going berserk with news of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur with 280 passengers and 15 crew having gone down in Ukrainian airspace. There is video and photo footage of the wreckage. And…
Bad debt cannot simply be ‘socialized’
Burgeoning debt in China was not an unlucky accident. It is fundamental to the way the growth model works. We coming closer to the 'Minsky Moment', in which the system requires an acceleration in credit growth simply to maintain existing…