Economy

This is a brief update to my last member post from this morning. Just reviewing what the ECB has done here, we see them taking four out of the five easing measures I outlined in May. The ECB could lower rates. Check The ECB could allow…

By Markus K Brunnermeier and Yuliy Sannikov This post originally appeared on Vox and represents what this site believes is a very likely action the ECB could take for monetary easing later this week. Eurozone monetary policy transmission…

Today’s post is a potpourri of events I am seeing from around the world that impinge on macro. Europe. As expected, European consumer price inflation came in at 0.5% following the unexpected dip in German inflation. I believe the ECB will…

The European data out today were not particularly good. We saw a deceleration in the eurozone economy, that when combined with the deceleration in German inflation, suggests that deflationary forces could still threaten a debt deflationary…

US GDP fell 1.0% in Q1 2014 according to the revised estimate released by the the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. A sharp downward revision was expected but this revision was unusually sharp and calls into question the continuing meme that…

By Michael Pettis It might seem almost churlish to wonder what would happen if Spain were to leave the euro. The official European position is that the battle of the euro has been pretty much won, and anyone who argues otherwise will be…

I’m back after the long weekend here in the US with a short post. Having pointed to the excesses in US credit markets on Friday, I should point out that the real economy in the US is doing pretty well at the moment. Markets can continue to…

Europe’s PMI show a divergence between Germany and France China’s manufacturing sector is still contracting The US student debt problem is growing

Yesterday, I wrote up a piece at the New York Times’ Room for Debate forum about the legacy that Tim Geithner left behind, given his recent memoir “Stress Test”. The question was : “Did the government miss a historic opportunity to reshape…

The Chinese property bubble is bursting Chinese wage pressure is rising Chinese search for oil has increased geopolitical tensions