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Browsing Category
Economy
US hourly earnings disappoint… again and thoughts on Japan
The big news this morning is the US employment report. The headline numbers were all good, though the add to non-farm payrolls came in below expectations. While this was a good report, the wage-related data were disappointing. Some thoughts…
Home prices since 1870: No price like home
House price fluctuations take centre stage in recent macroeconomic debates, but little is known about their long-run evolution. This column presents new house price indices for 14 advanced economies since 1870. Real house prices display a…
The U.S. economy is doing well
The GDP and jobless claims numbers for the U.S. came out today and they confirm the continued solid pace of recovery that has taken shape since Q2 began. GDP growth came in at a 3.5% annualized and initial jobless claims were 287,000,…
Banks, Japanese trade, the currency wars and deflation
There are no big themes dominating the news today. So it is a perfect time to hit a couple of themes with an economic and market theme approach. Let’s talk banks, Japanese trade, the currency wars and deflation.
The roots of the Italian stagnation
It’s currently very trendy in Italy to blame Angela Merkel, Mario Monti, and austerity measures for the current recession. This column argues that while the severity of the downturn is clearly a cyclical phenomenon, the inability of the…
Does The Secular Stagnation Theory Have Any Sort of Validity?
While there is no definitive answer at this point to the question whether or not what we are seeing is a creeping process of secular stagnation which will gradually spread from one economy to another as the respective working age…
Are we in a global financial crisis?
With financial markets tanking across the board, there is a whiff of panic and some people might be thinking that the next global financial crisis is already upon us. I don’t think this is the case. Certainly, the European sovereign debt…
On how weak growth begets low yields and on Spain over Germany
I want to revisit two themes from my ten surprises post for a mini-post follow up to the last newsletter. The first theme is Treasury strength due to US economic weakness and the second is Spain outperforming Germany economically. Both of…
Market signals of slower economic growth are mounting
The number of market-based signals indicative of a slowing global economy are mounting along with weak GDP data in a number of important countries. In the face of a strong dollar and weak foreign currency translations, I believe it is…
Is Japan Back In Recession?
“People should seriously consider that Japan’s economy may have fallen into recession despite the weaker yen and a stock rally from the BOJ’s easing and the flexible fiscal policy by Abe’s administration,” said Maiko Noguchi, senior…