September 2020

The fix I am writing this just before the release of the US jobless claims data series. And for weeks now, I have been telling you that the unemployment claim series was distorted by a multiplicative seasonal factor. See here and here.…

This is an update to yesterday's post about the inability of safe asset holdings to mitigate downside risk during equity drawdowns. As you know, I believe we are about to enter a potentially volatile period in the markets in September and…

At the beginning of 2015, I began to push an investment thesis for fixed income that has had a lot of upside, but that I believe has finally played out. I want to discuss why that thesis mattered, why it's dead and what will replace it.…