January 2019

It's coming down to the wire for British Prime Minister Theresa May now. Starting at about 1900 GMT, parliament is to vote on the Leave Agreement she secured from Brussels. Theresa May has been making last ditch attempts to win over MPs in…

Happy Monday! Let's take a break from all of the angst about Brexit, about the US shutdown, and slowing global growth and look at some overarching macro policy debates that are relevant to this economic cycle. I've put forward my own views…

Two issues I mentioned yesterday need some clarification. Trump will declare a state of emergency for the Wall The first is the shutdown. It's this quote that needs clarification: The longer the shutdown goes on, the more damage it will do.…

Today's daily post is going to a true daily, covering a wide range of market and political economy news. Forcing government to rule out no deal And I want to start with Brexit because I think this is one of the most pressing issues in the…

On today's market action Today saw the S&P 500 rise for the fourth straight day, the longest up-streak since September. And that puts us up 10% since Christmas Eve. Crude is rallying too , with WTI gaining almost 5% on the day to…

The Brexit news is coming hot and heavy now. The latest out of the UK is that House of Commons Speaker John Bercow has allowed an attempt to force Prime Minister Theresa May’s hand on the Brexit deal. The Commons Speaker will allow MPs to…

After I wrote today's post on Brexit, the following news came out - and I think it's significant: Theresa May faces a concerted campaign of parliamentary warfare from a powerful cross-party alliance of MPs determined to use every lever at…

The trading day is over in the US and the numbers look good. Equity markets have recovered smartly from last weeks nosedive, with all major US indices up about 1%. Notable for me is the fact that WTI is trading close to $50 a barrel and the…

I've been thinking about how to write this piece on the outlook for the political economy in the UK for a number of days. I had it teed up to finish yesterday. But I have left it until today. Apologies I still have the bias that economics…

I mentioned earlier today that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had a joint discussion with former Chair Janet Yellen and former Chairman Ben Bernanke at the American Economic Association and Allied Social Science Association 2019…