2018

The US is not going to be the engine of global growth here. With Europe, focused on exporting its way to growth and China both slowing and in jeopardy of tariffs, we have the makings of difficult times in 2019.

Yesterday, the US Treasury yield curve inverted between 2- and 5-year rates. Right now, the 2-year is trading at 2.82%. While the 5-year is trading at 2.81%. So, the curve remains inverted.

While everyone was focussing on the relief rally in stocks yesterday, the US treasury yield curve inverted for the first time in over a decade. This is a negative signpost in a world in which the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise…

Here is what the freeze in the US-China trade war will mean for the global economic outlook.

I am going to do a book review of an econ book that has just come out. And I think it’s fitting that my first post on the return of the Credit Writedowns ‘blog’ is a review of such a good book like “The Myth of Capitalism”. I started…

This is my inaugural post on the new platform after I wrote you about changes I wanted to make. So, I hope this new platform is better than the old because it's being hosted at my old blog url www.creditwritedowns.com. Let me know your…

Oil is one of several reasons the Fed might pause next year, rather than sticking to its three hike timetable. Housing is another. No wonder there was considerable speculation about a pause on the back of comments by Fed Chairman Jerome…

The Powell speech is over and the stock market is up on the back of it because people interpreted his comments as dovish. Was it though? It depends on where you're coming from.

Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida gave a speech just yesterday on future monetary policy called "Data Dependence and U.S. Monetary Policy". Let's look at what he had to say as we await Chairman Powell's own speech today.

Trump's bellyaching about the Fed is only harming him. It serves no useful purpose. If he thinks it's a veiled threat, he's wrong.