December 2018

I want to talk a little about price action in asset markets this week. But, since I am on holiday, I am going to keep this short. Most of the focus has been on equities, where volatility has increased. But I am looking at this as more of a…

Bullish Treasury curve action Lost in the relief over the rally in US equities today was the price action in US government bonds. And it was good. Even before today, as the middle of the curve inverted, the Treasury curve had been…

I want to go back to my theme of just over a week ago about the resiliency of the US economy. That's because, regardless of one-day -- or even multi-day -- stock market gyrations, the real economy is the defining issue for markets.…

Markets are imploding, every organization that US President Donald Trump has led is under investigation, his poll ratings are sagging, and Trump's legislative agenda is set to go nowhere under a divided Congress. Frankly, it looks very…

Stocks sold off big again today. Slowly, we are inching ourselves toward a bear market here. And I think the mantra has to be 'Fight the Fed'. In this morning's market piece, I explained why this could be the Fed's last rate increase. And…

If you look at markets today, they are on full strike. The Fed may have reduced guidance. But that was clearly not enough to assuage market sentiment. Across a wide cross-section of markets, conditions have continued to tighten this morning…

As I wrote yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter point but changed guidance in the face of tightening financial conditions. In his press conference afterwards, the Fed Chairman - also as predicted - talked bullishly…

The daily yesterday was on the resiliency of the US economy. My overarching message was that the angst we are seeing in the market is not reflective of near-term economic strength. Instead, it's a combination of worries about a slowing…

Asset market distress is mounting My default position recently has been more about volatility than a directional call on any specific asset class. But, in a world in which asset prices have been rising, increased volatility is almost always…

The maneuvering over the UK's exit from the European Union continues unabated. The latest news inside the UK is that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is considering tabling a no-confidence vote against the minority government of Conservative…