2014

By Marc Chandler We argue that part of the euro's rise over the past several months reflects a reassessment of Spain's outlook. Many global investors had been under-weight Europe though most of H1 13, favoring the US and Japanese…

News links for 23 Jan 2014

Wage increases are vital for Abenomics - without them the current policies are simply unsustainable (see discussion). If consumers are squeezed (see post), spending will decline and the nation will face deflationary pressures once again.…

In the wake of the financial crisis, bailouts and cheap money have done much to restore American bank balance sheets. Earnings for banks have returned to pre-crisis levels. But over the medium-term I believe banks’ earnings power will be…

News links for 22 Jan 2014

Fitch, the ratings agency, has reversed itself on Canada. It now believes that the housing market there is poised for only modest declines at worst. Previously, Fitch had said that Canada’s housing market was well overpriced and that a…

In yesterday’s commentary, I wrote that China was attempting to rebalance its economy, which ultimately means a slowdown in its use of commodities. This has hit the commodities currencies particularly hard, with the Australian Dollar down…

Some of the largest natural resource exporters with floating exchange rates have seen their currencies come under significant pressure over the past year.

News links for 21 Jan 2014

China is a big wildcard for 2014. Growth slowed last year to a 14-year low. It isn’t yet clear if the trend will continue and what China’s leadership will do if growth does slow further.