2013

This lack of credit expansion is a dangerous trend that could result in years of Japan-style stagnation. In order to address it, one approach the ECB is contemplating is forcing the banking system to use the new LTRO proceeds to provide…

Five central banks from high income countries meet this week: Australia, Canada, Norway, Britain, and the euro area. None are expected to announce a change in policy – but if there is a surprise, it would most likely come from the The US…

News links for 29 Nov 2013

Drawing on research by the IMF's Hites Ahir and Prakash Loungani, the chart compares the house-price-to-rent ratio compared with the historical average. This is a standard measure of valuation. Clearly by such a metric, the recovery in…

The spread between crude oil traded in the international markets and the US benchmark, the so-called Brent-WTI spread has blown out once again. It's now approaching levels not seen since February.

Below is a selection of economic and political events affecting currency markets.

A number of indicators seem to point to a relatively weak holiday shopping season in the US. In particular, the Gallup survey index that estimates holiday spending has turned lower. And consumer sentiment peaked this summer and has been…

My view since the beginning of the financial crisis has been that policy levers to alleviate this private debt stress are limited, and that this limitation will be felt in defaults, writedowns and deleveraging of a magnitude that is larger…

News links for 26 Nov 2013

At its current pace the Fed is taking about half a trillion of MBS securities out of the market. In fact the Fed is now removing more than 100% of the paper that is being issued.