2013

A week ago I wrote that I believed QE will end this year after tapering off in June. I stand by this stance. However, we have heard from three Fed officials in the interim and I wanted to pass on what they are saying to gauge how likely it…

I was on the Daily Ticker with Lauren Lyster talking about Japan yesterday. My view is that there is no material negative change in Japan's sovereign debt outlook nor will there be in the medium term because of Abenomics. The video is at…

I caught this FT graphic via David Wessel yesterday. It shows you that while the labour force in the Euro Zone as a whole generally continues to grow, the labour force in Germany has shrunk. During the euro era, Germany's labour force…

I have been saying for some time now that Germany is concerned about its own public finances. So it is good to see that Angela Merkel is now confirming this. According to the Telegraph, Merkel believes that Germany simply doesn't have the…

News links for 16 Apr 2013

A recent ECB household-wealth survey was interpreted by the media as evidence that poor Germans shouldn’t have to pay for southern Europe. This column takes a look at the numbers. Whilst it’s true that median German households are poor…

Gold is breaking down in a big way right now. We are well into bear market territory here. Marc Faber thinks it could fall to $1300... before rebounding. A number of noted goldbugs are talking about a Fed conspiracy. So what is going on…

Some recent data out of Canada points to a slowdown in growth of consumer indebtedness. According to RBC, the non-mortgage consumer debt has grown at the slowest rate in 20 years. This is clearly a positive development, but when taking…

In all of the bailed out nations of the euro zone, sovereign default is the worry as this can create a cascading knock-on effect like the failure of Creditanstalt in 1931 that ushered in the banking crisis of the Great Depression. We see…

The yen bears have been frustrated by a series of developments. They were unpleasantly surprised by news that the Japanese themselves were large sellers, not buyers, of foreign bonds in the first full week of the new fiscal year. In…